By now, most fans have heard all about Arkansas’ inability to win games on the road. The Razorbacks’ 2-20 record in true road games and 3-26 record in games outside of the state under head coach Mike Anderson are well-documented statistics.
Coming off of a dramatic 87-85 victory over No. 12 Kentucky at Bud Walton Arena, many people thought Arkansas had turned a corner and would beat Georgia on the road Saturday.
It appeared that would happen, as the Razorbacks held a five-point lead with less than five minutes remaining, but they blew the lead and lost 66-61 in overtime.
Making Arkansas’ road struggles more puzzling is the fact that they can beat almost anyone at home. Two seasons ago, No. 15 Mississippi State and No. 20 Michigan lost to the Razorbacks at Bud Walton.
Last season, No. 2 Florida lost to Arkansas by 11 points in Fayetteville, while the Gators barely escaped Bud Walton with a win this year, as the No. 10 team in the country. Kentucky wasn’t so lucky.
Take a look at this chart, which gives you every Southeastern Conference team’s home and road winning percentage in conference play since the 2011-12 season, as well as the difference between the two percentages.
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| *Missouri and Texas A&M’s home and road winning percentages do not include the 2011-12 season, as they were a part of the Big XII. Only their years in the SEC are included (2012-13 to present). |
As you can see, Arkansas’ .684 difference is the largest difference in the SEC.
What causes this dramatic difference? I looked at five different potential causes in an attempt to diagnose the Razorbacks’ problem. Here’s what I found…
1. Can’t Handle Hostility on the Road?
Some teams struggle on the road because the opposing team’s fans rattle its players.
Much has been made of “the 12th man” for the Seattle Seahawks and the record-breaking noise level of the Kansas City Chiefs’ fans in the NFL. In both home stadiums, opposing quarterbacks can’t communicate well, causing delay of game and false start penalties.
Duke’s “Cameron Crazies” create the most famous home-court advantage in college basketball.
The home-court advantage is real, but does it affect the Razorbacks?
To answer this question, I looked at how Arkansas performed in road games and the attendance at them.
If the Razorbacks can not handle hostility on the road, you could expect their margin of defeat to be larger when playing in front of a large crowd. If they thrive on large crowds, like the ones they play in front of at Bud Walton Arena, then you could expect their margin of defeat to be larger when playing in front of a small crowd.
Here is a chart that plots the size of the opposing team’s crowd against the margin of defeat.
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| The two points at the bottom represent Arkansas' two road victories, both of which came against Auburn, in front of crowds of fewer than 10,000. |
As you can see, there is no correlation. Arkansas has been blown out in front of small crowds and large crowds. It has close losses in front of small crowds and large crowds.
It is safe to say that the other team’s crowd does not have a noticeable affect on the Razorbacks’ road performance.
2. Can’t Shoot on the Road?
Since the 2011-12 season, Anderson’s first at Arkansas, the Razorbacks have shot 43.2 percent from the field in conference play at Bud Walton Arena.
During that same time span, the Razorbacks have shot only 39.6 percent in conference road games.
While that is a drop off, it is by only 3.6 percentage points.
Anderson has said that one of the keys to winning on the road is being able to overcome bad shooting nights, because they inevitably happen on the road.
With just a small decrease in shooting percentage, Arkansas should still be able to do the other aspects of the game well enough to win on the road.
Shooting is part of the problem, but not a major factor.
3. Don’t Play Defense on the Road?
One of these “other aspects” is playing the tough defense that Anderson preaches about. On off-shooting nights, teams should be able to rely on their defense to keep them in games.
Naturally, most teams are going to give up a few more points on the road than at home, but it should not be too many more.
Here is a chart of the SEC teams and how many points they have given up on the road and at home in conference play since the 2011-12 season.
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| *Missouri and Texas A&M's stats do not include the 2011-12 season, as they were a part of the Big XII. Only their years in the SEC are included (2012-12 to present). |
On average, SEC teams give up 7.3 percent more points on the road that at home against conference opponents.
The Razorbacks are under the conference average, giving up only 4.9 percent more points away from Bud Walton.
While Anderson would probably prefer to give up fewer points on the road that at home, like Kentucky and Texas A&M have, Arkansas’ scoring defense hasn’t been a main contributor to its poor road performances.
4. Don’t Play Aggressively on the Road?
Only looking at a team’s scoring defense as an indicator of how good their entire defense is would be silly.
Other statistics that give you an idea of how good a particular defense is are steals and turnovers. These stats, along with fouls, are also indicators of how aggressive a team is playing.
Under Anderson, the Razorbacks have become one of the most aggressive teams in the country. This season, the Razorbacks are forcing 18.4 turnovers per game and averaging 8.3 steals per game. Those stats rank second and 19th in the NCAA, respectively.
However, when you look at the home and away splits of these areas in conference play since 2011-12, you notice some alarming differences.
At Bud Walton Arena, the Razorbacks own a plus-7.2 turnover margin and come away with 9.6 steals per game. Those numbers drop to plus-1.4 and 7.2 when they are on the road.
Those are signs of aggressiveness on defense. Fouls are a sign of aggressiveness on offense. Arkansas commits virtually the same number of fouls at home as they do on the road (20.9 at home, 21.1 on the road), but there is a large gap in the number of fouls they draw.
The Razorbacks’ opponents are whistled for 20.6 fouls at Bud Walton, but only 15.2 away from Fayetteville. That is a 26.2 percent drop off.
One obvious side effect of fewer fouls is fewer free throws. While Arkansas has attempted 23.9 free throws per game against conference opponents since the 2011-12 season, it has attempted only 16.8 on the road.
Another thing that means is that the Razorbacks aren’t being as aggressive on offense. If they were attacking the basket on the road like they do at home, there wouldn’t be such a large disparity in fouls.
Both defensive and offensive aggressiveness are features of Anderson’s style of play, and Arkansas must be as consistent as it is at home if the Razorbacks are going to turn it around on the road.
5. Can’t Play the “Fastest 40” Style on the Road?
After pouring over all sorts of statistics, I have concluded that, for some reason, Arkansas cannot play the “Fastest 40” style of basketball on the road.
Characteristics of the “Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball” are forced turnovers and steals, which were discussed previously, as well as scoring. A lot of scoring.
Arkansas’ 83.3 points per game this season is first in the SEC and 10th in the country. Last season, the Razorbacks were third in the SEC and 33rd in the NCAA, with 73.7 points per game.
Since Anderson’s first year at Arkansas, though, the Razorbacks haven’t been able to bring their scoring on the road.
Here is a chart of the SEC teams and how many points they have scored at home and on the road in conference play since the 2011-12 season.
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| *Missouri and Texas A&M's stats do not include the 2011-12 season, as they were a part of the Big XII. Only their years in the SEC are included (2012-13 to present). |
Arkansas has scored a whopping 19.3 percent fewer points on the road than at Bud Walton Arena. That is the largest percentage difference in the conference by far.
Contributing to this difference is the fact that the Razorbacks don’t take as many shots on the road (about 5.2 percent fewer than at home). However, that should not result in such a large scoring drop off.
The Razorbacks must force their style upon their opponents when playing on the road. They have not done that yet and it’s resulted in a 2-20 road conference record.
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