Wednesday, November 13, 2013

TAT: Hogs Improve on Scoreboard, Still Need Help in Secondary


This article originally appeared in the November 13, 2013 issue of The Arkansas Traveler.

The Arkansas football team enters its second bye week of the season on a seven-game losing streak, which is tied for the longest in UA history.
After the Razorbacks won their first three games of the season, they traveled to Rutgers, where they gave up 21 unanswered points and lost 28-24.
In its next five games, Arkansas played five consecutive ranked teams, losing to No. 10 Texas A&M, No. 18 Florida, No. 14 South Carolina, No. 1 Alabama and No. 8 Auburn.
The losing streak hit seven games Saturday as the Razorbacks lost to Ole Miss 34-24 in Oxford, Miss.
However, Arkansas has improved in some areas during the seven-game stretch.
The first five losses were by an average margin of 26.6 points, while the last two games have been by an average of 14 points.
Click to enlarge.
This graph shows Arkansas' progression of point differential
this season.



Most fans know that the final score doesn’t always paint an accurate picture of how close the game was, but the Razorbacks have really been closer in their last two games.
Against Auburn, Arkansas scored a touchdown on its first play of the fourth quarter to pull within 11 points.
On the Tigers’ first play after the touchdown, quarterback Nick Marshall broke off a 28-yard run before freshman cornerback Jared Collins tracked him down and stripped the ball. Despite Arkansas having three players surrounding the ball, Marshall was able to recover his own fumble.
If Arkansas recovers it, they have the ball at their own 47-yard line with a chance to pull within one possession early in the fourth quarter.
The Razorbacks were also in the game during the second half against Ole Miss.
Up by 10 points, the Rebels received the ball to start the second half and had a chance to increase their lead.
Instead, junior safety Alan Turner intercepted a pass in Ole Miss territory. It took Arkansas six plays to get into the end zone and pull within three points with more than 11 minutes left in the third quarter.
The defense forced an Ole Miss three-and-out and senior Javontee Herndon returned the punt 31 yards to give the Razorbacks good field position.
Arkansas picked up 14 yards on its first two plays, but a failed halfback-pass trick play ended the Razorbacks’ momentum and only two plays later, they were forced to punt.
Even though the Rebels scored touchdowns on their next two possessions, the Razorbacks weren’t completely out of the game, yet.
A touchdown with just under five minutes remaining in the game narrowed the margin to 10 points, but a block in the back penalty on an interception return and a missed 58-yard field goal attempt ended Arkansas’ hopes for a comeback.
The Razorbacks are playing opponents much closer than in their 52-7 and 52-0 blowout losses to South Carolina and Alabama, respectively, but they continue to struggle with their pass defense.
In Southeastern Conference play, Arkansas’ opponents are completing 72.8 percent of their passes. If Arkansas’ performances against nonconference opponents are factored in, that statistic drops to 65 percent, but is still next to last in the SEC and 107th of out 125 FBS schools.
Arkansas must figure out a way to improve its secondary during the bye week. Mississippi State is 10th in the SEC with a 60.2 completion percentage, but they attempt 33.2 passes per game, third most in the conference.
The two teams ahead of the Bulldogs in passes per game, Texas A&M and Ole Miss, torched the Razorbacks for 344.5 passing yards per game and five passing touchdowns. The Aggies and Rebels also completed 76.5 percent of their passes.
Mississippi State hosts No. 1 Alabama Saturday at 6:45 p.m. on ESPN, while kickoff for Arkansas’ game against the Bulldogs is set for 11:21 a.m. at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. The game will air nationally on SEC TV.
Click to enlarge.
This graph gives a visual of Arkansas' pass defense. The blue line is Arkansas'
opponent's completion percentage against the Razorbacks. The green line is
Arkansas' opponent's completion percentage against all other teams. The red
line is completion percentage by the opponents of all other SEC teams that
week. As you can see, Arkansas has only held three teams (Louisiana, Rutgers
and Alabama) under their season averages. Also, the Razorbacks have given up
a higher completion percentage than the SEC average seven times.

No comments:

Post a Comment